[Swiftwater Gazette] China Doesn't Buy It!

Fri Mar 13 09:44:10 EDT 2009

Oh, I love Hong Kong -- I may have some "Hello China -- Goodbye GB" 
T-Shirts left over from the turn-over -- what's your size?

Begger's Chicken!

I'll note the fast pass for my grand children -- thanks.

Obama is clueless -- he just reads what others write.  The economists 
surrounding him are committed to their positions and now must play them 
out, ignoring the fact that when Bush was deficit spending they 
condemned him--now they have taken the position that he didn't spend 
enough soon enough.

Of course it won't work.

You gotta admire Ron Paul for a lot of things.

But just like Rik, being right ain't enough.

Protect your own.

B.

Brad Haslett wrote:
> Bill,
>
> They have a thing now that may not have existed when you were there
> called "Fast Pass". You get a reservation for a time window to the
> most popular rides.  The system won't allow you to hold more than one
> reservation at a time. This is Cora's 3rd or 4th trip so she knows the
> park pretty well - we just follow along.  Thank goodness she's grown
> out of her infatuation with Ariel.  I waited in line 90 minutes so she
> could spend 15 seconds with a big-boobed redhead in a mermaid costume.
>  Come to think of it, it wasn't all that bad! Disney is spending 24
> Billion building a new park in Shanghai as we speak.
>
> As the article pointed out, China has 2 Trillion in currency reserves
> they can blow through before they start deficit spending.  Of course,
> half of that is held in US dollars and that is what they are worried
> about.  US trade is a huge component of their foreign exchange but
> China has been building business relationships all over the Pacific
> Rim.  According to my conversation with Jia last summer, about 70% of
> their manufacturing capacity is for internal consumption.  That last
> 30% of capacity is where they make their money. Their leadership is
> facing huge social problems and unrest in the Pearl River Delta
> because so many jobs have been eliminated and workers are being forced
> to go home to the countryside.  China is still primarily an agrarian
> society so there's a lot of countryside to go home to.  It is easy to
> lose sight of that fact when you're inside a modern city like Beijing
> or Shanghai.  Take a train anywhere outside the city and you're
> reminded that there are still 900 million peasants.
>
> To answer your second question, China won't buy US debt if they're not
> selling to the US. That is why all the bold talk about protecting
> American workers by limiting free trade is so much BS.  It didn't work
> with Smoot-Hawley in the 30's and it sure as hell won't work now if we
> plan to borrow our way to prosperity.  Go to any premier hotel in any
> major city in China and you'll find a lot more Europeans and Asians
> from developed countries than Americans.  We tend to think of
> ourselves as the center of the universe - the Chinese don't.
>
> We did some extensive homework over the weekend on Chinese tax law.
> My employer has a bid out to expand the pilot domicile in Hong Kong
> (which mans the hub in Guangzhou - two hours away).  Hong Kong has
> separate laws from the Mainland but both are favorable to ours.  We've
> decided to stay put for the time being because of Cora's educational
> needs.  Down the road - who knows.  I've got a friend from my Bonanza
> list who lives there and would offer me access to his airplane.  The
> sailing there is pretty good as well.  The biggest downside is the
> pollution.  China has a lot of work to do in that area but they're
> slowly working on the problem.  We didn't solve our acid rain and
> polluted river issues overnight and neither will they.  Most
> certainly, they won't wreck their economy looking for an immediate
> fix.  I'm all in favor of "green energy" but it won't happen overnight
> and it won't happen by the government deciding who the winners and
> losers are.  We may very well wreck our economy by trying though.
>
> Brad
>
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 7:49 AM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>   
>> Have fun at Disney World.
>>
>> Of course it's been many many years since I've been there, but we used
>> to get up very early to arrive at opening time.  We could just walk from
>> one ride to the next for a couple of hours, starting at the most popular
>> and avoiding any ride with a line.  When there's no line you can do the
>> best rides over and over if you want to.
>>
>> You know how old I am, so you know how long ago that was -- don't know
>> if this trick still works -- but it's something to consider.
>>
>> B.
>>
>> PS -- How do you suppose China plans to finance its own deficit  spending?
>>
>> PPS -- If Chinese exports to the US decline, how will China be able to
>> buy an increasing quantity of US debt to finance our increasing deficit
>> spending?
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Brad Haslett wrote:
>>     
>>> "Inside China there has been a lot of debate about whether they should
>>> continue to buy Treasuries."
>>>
>>> Well duuuuh!   China has been sending "polite" messages for weeks that
>>> they see through this scam and aren't interested in being paid back in
>>> inflated dollars. Did the Sec. of the Treasury think that based on his
>>> Asian Studies degree and time spent living in China that the Chinese
>>> are stupid?  I think now would be a good time to invest in WD-40
>>> because those printing presses are going to need a lot of lubrication.
>>>  Maybe ink and paper would be good investments as well. Why didn't
>>> someone in the American media just pick-up a Beijing phone book and
>>> call the first Wong, or Shen, or Kung their finger landed on and ask?
>>> A month ago our Dear Leader told us we were facing the worst disaster
>>> since the Great Depression, and that we may not recover from it if we
>>> don't spend a Trillion dollars we don't have immediately on welfare,
>>> health-care, green energy, etc. Now that the money we don't have has
>>> been committed but not yet spent, Dear Leader tells us things are not
>>> so bad. I'm confused, but this is my first Great Leap Forward
>>> experience so that's understandable. The Chinese have "been there,
>>> done that" and they ain't buying.
>>>
>>> Someone else run the world for a few days.  We're taking Cora to
>>> Disney World for Spring Break this afternoon. If I have to listen to
>>> fantasy talk from someone with big ears, I prefer M-I-C-K-E-Y!
>>>
>>> Brad
>>>
>>> -------------------
>>>
>>> Mar 13, 6:21 AM (ET)
>>>
>>> By JOE McDONALD
>>>
>>>
>>> BEIJING (AP) - China's premier expressed concern Friday about its
>>> massive holdings of Treasuries and other U.S. debt, appealing to
>>> Washington to safeguard their value, and said Beijing is ready to
>>> expand its stimulus if the economy worsens.
>>>
>>> Premier Wen Jiabao noted that Beijing is the biggest foreign creditor
>>> to the United States and called on Washington to see that its response
>>> to the global slowdown does not damage the value of Chinese holdings.
>>>
>>> "We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States. Of course
>>> we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I'm a
>>> little bit worried," Wen said at a news conference following the
>>> closing of China's annual legislative session. "I would like to call
>>> on the United States to honor its words, stay a credible nation and
>>> ensure the safety of Chinese assets."
>>>
>>> Wen's comments foreshadowed possible appeals to President Barack
>>> Obama, who will meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao at a London
>>> summit of leaders of the G-20 group of major economies on April 2 to
>>> discuss the global financial crisis.
>>>
>>>
>>> Analysts estimate that nearly half of China's $2 trillion in currency
>>> reserves are in U.S. Treasuries and notes issued by other
>>> government-affiliated agencies.
>>>
>>> Washington is counting on China to continue buying Treasuries to fund
>>> its $787 billion stimulus package. Last month, visiting Secretary of
>>> State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to reassure Beijing that
>>> government debt would remain a reliable investment.
>>>
>>> "They are worried about forever-rising deficits, which may devalue
>>> Treasuries by pushing interest rates higher," said JP Morgan economist
>>> Frank Gong. "Inside China there has been a lot of debate about whether
>>> they should continue to buy Treasuries."
>>>
>>> The comments come as finance ministers and central bankers of the G-20
>>> gather in London this weekend to discuss the crisis and possible
>>> remedies.
>>>
>>> U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is pressing for a new
>>> coordinated stimulus but European governments are reluctant to take on
>>> more debt before they see how current plans are working. The Europeans
>>> want to emphasize the need for greater regulation of markets,
>>> including a crackdown on tax havens and increased control over hedge
>>> funds.
>>>
>>> In Beijing, Wen expressed confidence China can emerge from its slump
>>> "at an early date," and said the government is ready to expand its 4
>>> trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus to boost growth in the world's
>>> third-largest economy.
>>>
>>> Communist leaders worry about rising job losses and possible unrest
>>> amid a trade slump that saw Chinese exports fall 25.7 percent in
>>> February from a year earlier. They have promised to spend heavily to
>>> create jobs and boost exports.
>>>
>>> "We already have our plans ready to tackle even more difficult times,
>>> and to do that we have reserved adequate ammunition," Wen said. "That
>>> means that at any time we can introduce new stimulus policies."
>>>
>>> In nearby Japan, Prime Minister Taro Aso called Friday for a fresh
>>> stimulus to help lift the world's second-largest economy out of "an
>>> unprecedented economic crisis." The comments helped spark a rally in
>>> Japan's stock market, where the Nikkei 225 stock index surged 5.2
>>> percent.
>>>
>>> China's Wen and other officials point to rising bank lending, power
>>> demand and other signs the stimulus is taking effect. But growth in
>>> retail sales is weakening, suggesting it has yet to spur private
>>> sector spending and investment, which analysts say will be key to its
>>> success.
>>>
>>> Wen said Beijing can meet its 2009 growth target of 8 percent, despite
>>> skepticism by private sector economists, who expect as little as 5
>>> percent. That would be the strongest of any major country but could
>>> lead to more waves of job cuts.
>>>
>>> "I really believe we will be able to walk out of the shadow of the
>>> financial crisis at an early date," he said. "After this trial, I
>>> believe the Chinese economy will show greater vitality."
>>>
>>> The premier promised to focus on job creation and give more help to
>>> smaller companies, which he said generate 90 percent of Chinese new
>>> employment.
>>>
>>> "We will pay all attention possible to this issue and we will never
>>> overlook this issue," he said.
>>>
>>> Wen said Beijing wants the London summit to focus on the plight of
>>> poor countries.
>>>
>>> "We must see to it that we show concern for developing countries, and
>>> help developing countries - the least-developed ones in particular -
>>> become an important topic on the agenda," he said.
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